Was lyarra stark alive during robert’s rebellion ?

You’d have to ask GRRM that, I’m afraid. Our only information about Lyarra is that she was Rickard’s cousin, daughter of Rodrik the Wandering Wolf and Arya Flint. That’s what Martin deigned to give us, which is an improvement on his previous “Lady Stark. She died”.

If I had to haphazard a guess, I’d say she wasn’t. I’d think she would have been at least mentioned by anyone if she was, but it’s hard to base speculation on what is born out of the writer’s indifference about the character. This is more about Martin not giving a thought to Lyarra than a definite proof that she was dead by then. To be frank, I don’t think Martin has yet decided how or when she died, or even gave a thought to it. If he ever does, we’ll probably be treated to another death in childbirth.

Jon Arryn dies right after the rebellion and before Sweetrobin is born? Who is his heir and if it is Harry, does Any Waynwood become regent for the Vale automatically?

Depends on whether Harry’s mother is still alive. Littlefinger’s telling of the Arryn family tree might suggest that she died shortly after having Harry but we don’t really know when she died. If she is alive at the time of Jon’s death, she becomes the ruling Lady of the Eyrie. If she is dead, little Harry becomes lord with Lady Waynwood having a rather strong claim to regency considering her blood relation to Harry and access to his person.

How would the story be unfolding if Tywin wasn’t so repulsive as to ‘forget’ to mention that Elia should live? Like how would her being alive change the narrative?

First let me say that Elia’s fate isn’t just dependent on Tywin’s orders. You have to factor in Gregor Clegane’s violent nature and quick temper that caused him to push his 7-year-old brother’s face into a brazier for the grand crime of playing with Gregor’s toy knight. If Elia was to, idk, try to attack him in defense of Aegon or in a furious grief after Aegon’s death or hell even resist him, I can see him reacting violently and killing her anyway, especially since I doubt that Tywin’s orders would be more than a perfunctory “eh, I guess there’s no reason to kill her. Whatever”.

But if Elia survives, we’d see changes on several fronts. Politically, this means that the crown has a bargaining chip that can be used to put pressure on the Martells instead of the hardly subtle military threat Jon Arryn must have used in OTL. Worst case scenario is that Elia gets held as a hostage against Doran’s good behavior to ensure that neither he or Oberyn put the rumors of declaring for Viserys into action. But I tend to think that Jon Arryn might choose a more diplomatic approach to mollify the Martells and also perhaps appease Ned’s anger over Robert’s careless reaction to murdered children. In a bid for a better PR aiming to distance the new king from Mad Aerys who kept Elia a hostage against her kin’s good behavior, the new Hand of the King might choose to return Elia to her brothers in Dorne (with a stipulation that she has to wait for a specific period of time before she remarries a la Jeyne Westerling) as a gesture of good faith from the crown with their sincerest apologies for the terrible crime that befell Rhaenys and Aegon that the crown, of course, had absolutely nothing to do with. Note that Elia’s survival means that at least the identity of Aegon’s killer is confirmed as opposed to being a very badly kept secret but with possible deniability that occurred in canon, so there is no place for claiming that the Martells only have “stable gossip and kitchen calumnies” but “no crumb of proof”, and less wiggle room for the new regime to claim ignorance. They’d have to contend with a grief-stricken mother who bore witness to her son’s murder (and who was possibly still raped because Clegane is a despicable pig) identifying the culprit in no uncertain terms. So I wonder if this might propel Jon Arryn to bring Clegane to justice to settle the matter, at least lest the optics of the situation be that the new king deliberately let a proven murderer and rapist go after a born princess clearly identified him.

Tywin would still get away with his crime though and have his daughter installed as queen, so the Martells would still be after “the head who spoke the words”. Elia’s survival in no way means that Doran and Oberyn wouldn’t hatch their plans to topple the Baratheon-Lannister regime, not when Tywin is rewarded for the murder of their kin (and Amory Lorch goes unpunished, though Rhaenys’ murder would almost certainly be pinned on Clegane in that case). However, Elia’s presence in Dorne might curtail their pact with Willem Darry for the betrothal between Viserys and Arianne. Elia’s residence in the Red Keep during the rebellion means that she came in contact with Viserys regularly and might have noticed the signs of mental health issues that Barristan Selmy says were evident in the young prince back then. I don’t see how Elia, who suffered firsthand from Aerys’ madness and paranoia, would condone tying her niece to a boy that was his father’s son in the name of avenging her own children. So while the Martells would still want to avenge Rhaenys and Aegon, the alliance with the exiled Targaryen children likely gets shelved on account of Viserys’ mental illness. They would likely still try to get in touch with Daenerys after she births her dragons (if she births her dragons, and oh I wonder what Elia would think of that, she who knows Rhaegar’s babbling about the prophecy) but without the pact with the Targaryens negotiated and already in place, maybe it’s Oberyn who goes to seek Daenerys and negotiate a betrothal to Quentyn, instead of Quent going himself. Or maybe Elia slaps some sense into Doran because sending your child into an active war zone with a few companions and leaving them to fend for themselves is a terrible idea.

(I might being verging on wishful thinking territory here if you haven’t already noticed)

Another major change is that
Elia’s survival throws a wrench in Varys’ plans. Varys can’t very well disguise his Blacfyre restoration plot by claiming Young Aegon is the son of Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia when Elia is right there to call bullshit. I’m not quite sure what Varys would do in this case. Maybe he has Elia killed and pins it on the Lannisters so he could sell his hidden prince story and ramp up the hostility between the Martells and the Baratheon-Lannister regime. Maybe he continues to undermine the crown and go for a straight up Blackfyre invasion once Westeros is sufficiently weakened. Maybe Illyrio takes in the exiled Targaryens right after Willem Darry’s death, kills Viserys and grooms Daenerys into dependency on Aegon so they might claim the throne in her name but have Aegon as the de facto ruler, though that would mess with Varys’ little social experiment.

Speaking of hidden non-princes, another plan that gets
jeopardized by Elia’s survival is Ned claiming Jon as his bastard. Elia has the information
needed to conclude that Lord Stark’s bastard isn’t his bastard, not
with “there must be one more” said over her own son’s cradle and Rhaegar
subsequently disappearing for months with Lyanna. To make things worse, Ned wouldn’t know or have any reason to suspect that Elia knows the truth
and can expose his lie so he wouldn’t think to take precautions to conceal Jon altogether or to prevent the truth from coming out. What Elia does
with the information though is speculative. On one hand, Rhaegar put Elia’s children in danger
and caused a rebellion that ended in their death specifically so he could get Jon so it’d be very easy to resent him for surviving while Elia children died (though that doesn’t mean she’d want him dead), just as
Catelyn resented him for not being the one who got injured instead of
Bran. Politically, revealing Jon’s identity neatly undermines the Baratheon regime by making the rebel coalition implode
as Robert and the Lannisters seek to eliminate Rhaegar’s last surviving
son (and punish Ned), Ned refuses to give his little nephew up even if it meant war, and Jon Arryn scrambles to
stave off another war, this time between his foster sons. But on the
other hand, Jon is an innocent child that had nothing to do with his
father’s actions, just like Rhaenys and Aegon. Making him pay for what
Rhaegar had done would only be a repeat of the injustice that Rhaenys
and Aegon suffered. It’s also likely that Elia would be aware that Ned
fought for justice for her children and was furious over it being
denied, so meeting his integrity with bringing danger to his doorstep and endangering his nephew would be a lousy thing to do. Elia’s relationship with the Daynes, who are almost certainly part of the cover up of Jon’s identity which would be very easy for Elia to figure out, might play a part in deterring her as well. But I really couldn’t say what knowledge of Jon’s identity could change in Martell narrative or how they might see fit to use it.

Needless to say, following these changes butterflies a lot of things away. Arianne does not grow estranged from Doran without a secret betrothal to Viserys. Quentyn potentially never goes to Slaver’s Bay. Oberyn might not be in King’s Landing at all for Tyrion’s trial, and if he is, he might not choose to champion Tyrion in the trial by combat without the incentive of Gregor being Cersei’s champion. Unless he decides that fucking with Tywin and having the rightful heir to Casterly Rock on their side is a worthy goal in and of itself. Either way, Oberyn survives. If Illyrio takes custody of young Dany with the goal of installing her as queen with Aegon besides her, the dragons do no return and everything that happens in her narrative is undone. No second dance and no King’s Landing kerboom, but no dragons to use against the Others either. If Dany has her narrative and Oberyn goes to her, that saves Quentyn, Arianne and probably the Sand Snakes since the Martell-Aegon alliance is not happening. Who knows, maybe Oberyn’s (earlier than OTL!Quent’s) arrival might help with the Mereeneese knot before everything goes to hell and Dany goes full into fire and blood mindset.

And I’ll stop here because my wires got crossed and I gave myself a headache.

marthajefferson:

the ‘Everybody-Lives’ Essos!AU + Arthur & Lyanna & little Jon on their mare
as
they owe just one horse, this is what happens when they all have to go to Volantis or to the
market by the shore, and it is usually Arthur who holds
the reins -to Lyanna’s regret. (yet, one day she will take the mare
without telling him and will participate in a race gathering some of
the best riders of Essos… but this is another chapter of this AU :P)

. click for bigger version .

I really liked the ACS finale. There were some moments that were off (Ronnie being the show’s mouthpiece and hitting us over the head with the season-long theme was cringy, though I appreciated getting to see Det. Lori’s reactions) but I think it’s a solid finale overall. Judith Light and Penelope Cruz delivered some stunning work, and I quite like the symbolism of Donatella’s reflected on the Medusa logo, both for how that can be constructed as a nod to Gianni saying that Versace without him is her, and for how it distorts her face as a reference to how ghastly Donatella was in her treatment of Antonio so that her mourning has an appalling side. I LOVED the last shot showing Andrew’s anonymity in a sea of nondescript graves, contrasted with the shrine to Versace and the memorization of Lee Miglin by those whose lives he touched. I’d have loved a moment for Jeff and David too tbh.

I’ve moved beyond dismantling arguments to outright blocking. I’m not going to waste my breath repeating the exact same point over and over, especially when the messages include charming bits that deny the possibility of infidelity in an arranged marriage (wut?) or talk about how wanton Oberyn was. I’ve been talking about nothing else for the past three days and I reckon I haven’t left much uncovered. If someone has a text-based argument that isn’t based on stereotypes, I’m happy to talk, but I’m not going to engage with people who have no interest in listening and only want to vomit the same old arguments over and over again while ignoring any counter-argument I make.