Earlier anon: on Lysa-Robert, I meant if a Ned-Cat betrothal was a done deal than Robert might consider Lysa so Ned and he could be brother in-laws via the Tully sisters. Lysa was older & the Riverlands are closer than the North. A Lyanna-Elbert match ties in shared borders. I don’t think Robert was picky which girl he married if he got to be brothers with Ned. Plus it leaves Brandon’s hand free- maybe Cersei?

Follow-up to this AU scenario.

Don’t you think it’s a needless stretch for Robert to marry Ned’s sister-in-law for the specific purpose of becoming Ned’s brother-in-law when he can easily accomplish that by, you know, marrying Ned’s own sister? Lyanna still makes the most sense for a bride for Robert in this AU, as much sense as she made in OTL, both due to Robert’s desire to be Ned’s brother (which, I believe, was further supported by the appeal the Starks as a close-knit family unit held for Robert as a substitute to his own broken and distant family. His violent denunciation of what Aerys did to Brandon and Rickard Stark to Ned of all people in AGoT did not come from nowhere.), and due to the circumstances of Robert’s upbringing and his close friendship with Ned that made Lyanna a natural choice in a bride. This does not change in this AU.

As for your other suggestions, I’m not saying they are unfeasible (except Brandon/Cersei cuz that ain’t happening). It’s just that the proposed AU does not require a complete upturn of the alliance map between the four kingdoms. Yes, a match between Lyanna and Elbert would still be in the North’s interest and serve the bigger goal of the SA bloc, but I don’t see any reason that Cat being an heiress would prevent the Robert/Lyanna match from happening in the first place. Also, keep in mind that Hoster actively had Jaime Lannister in mind for Lysa which only went south at the tourney of Harrenhal when Aerys named Jaime to the Kingsguard. Lyanna was already betrothed to Robert then.

dcriss-archive:

[LQ] Executive producer/director Ryan Murphy, executive producer Nina Jacobson, executive producer Brad Simpson, executive producer/writer Tom Rob Smith, consultant Maureen Orth, actors Darren Criss, Edgar Ramirez and Ricky Martin of the television show The Assassination of Gianni Versace speak onstage during the FOX/FX Networks portion of the 2018 Winter Television Critics Association Press Tour at The Langham Huntington, Pasadena on January 5, 2018 in Pasadena, California

If all of Holster Tully children are girls with Cat as the heir would he look at a bannerman for her consort or a second son of an ally? If Ned-Cat, would Holster push Lysa towards Robert? Or maybe Stannis- Cat (an heiress is a prize for a second born)? Try for little Willas for girl!Edmure?

Wedding Cat to a Riverlander might have its benefits, but not only does it come with a risk of her husband ruling in her stead, but Hoster was way too ambitious to waste an extremely valuable marital pawn on a bannerman. As I’ve discussed before, Hoster’s planned betrothals for his family, from Brynden all the way down to Edmure, bespoke an aspiration for allying with other great houses across the country, both as a part of the SA planning, and as a personal ambition for his house. Whatever advantage can come from marrying into a vassal house can not compare to marrying into a paramount house of another kingdom.

Following that, Cat’s status as heir would only change the identity of her betrothed since heir-heir marriage is best avoided, but not Hoster’s desired alliances. Both Ned and Stannis are options for Cat but I think Ned would be the more likely candidate in light of how Hoster and Rickard Stark desired an alliance between Riverrun and Winterfell, and since Hoster wanted Jaime Lannister for Lysa so a Brandon-Lysa match wouldn’t be his first choice to ally with Wintefell. Pairing Ned with Cat also grants Riverrun a more direct link to Winterfell, Storm’s End and the Eyrie, which would be one or even two steps removed in the case of a match with Stannis (whose relationship with Robert is terrible, has no connection to the Arryns except through Robert, and who wouldn’t be living at Storm’s End to build a relationship with Lyanna). Of course this could introduce a dilemma if Rickard and Brandon Stark still die and the planned betrothal turns into an heir-lord marriage, but it’s not unsolvable.

As for Lysa, a match with Robert is extremely unfeasible. Robert had his personal reasons for pursuing Lyanna before the rebellion and no relationship with the Tullys at this point, and Hoster couldn’t very well negotiate a match with a betrothed man during a war waging over the kidnapping of his betrothed. That would be a very bad form, incredibly insulting to both Ned and Robert, and severely alienating as it communicates to them the expectation that Lyanna won’t make it. There is also the little issue of Lysa’s past pregnancy and how the circumstances that enabled Hoster to spin this as beneficial for Jon Arryn simply do not exist in Robert’s case. Hoster is too astute of a politician to even attempt this betrothal.

Could a Targ king ever abdicate? It seems to me that Aerys could have gotten exactly what he wanted in life (read books & not have sex) by giving up the throne to his brothers & becoming a maester or septon. If not right after the Spring Sickness maybe a few years later?

Yes, a king could abdicate. We don’t have a clear case of one actually abdicating in Westeros as far as I can recall (though plenty of kings abdicated in real life), but we do have the abdication of Prince Duncan the Small who chose to renounce his claim to the throne rather than give up Jenny of Oldstones. Maester Yandel also mentions forced abdication as a possible method for a Great Council to remove Aerys in his account of the stories told about the true purpose of the tourney at Harrenhal. Robert Baratheon, while not a Targaryen king, also mentions his dream of giving up the throne and leaving for the Free Cities to Ned and how the only thing stopping him was the thought of Joffrey on the throne.

But just because a king could abdicate does not mean that Aerys would. Why would he? Bookishness does not necessarily translate to a desire to be a maester, and we hear nothing of a noted piousness on his part that could suggest he was interested in becoming a septon. Note that joining either order means accepting their rules and limitations, forswearing his name and titles for a life of service, and committing to their studies, all of which he probably had no interest in doing. Aerys wasn’t just bookish, he was specifically concerned with magical arcane texts and lore, the exact kind of studies that are not really supported or encouraged by the Citadel. Neither would his study there even offer him access to the rare texts that only a handful of senior archmaesters would have access to. So, what’s the upside of abdicating and becoming a maester for him? Aerys was already getting what he wanted; he was the highest authority in the land and no one could force him to do something against his will. He refused to consummate his marriage, refused to produce an heir, refused to be a proper ruling monarch and left running the country to Bloodraven while he kept company with arcane texts and lost lore that he perused at his convenience and leisure. No one could restrict his reading or prevent him from pursuing the texts he wanted, and he had a fellow magically-minded individual in Bloodraven to support his beliefs. Why give it up and submit himself to the authority of an order resistant to his subject of interest to control what he does or studies, or enter into useless arguments with conservative maesters who don’t believe in any of that prophecy and Others crap?

Too, I’d raise the question about the consequences an abdication would have brought to the realm. One of the major criticisms leveled at Aerys is that his refusal to consummate his marriage could have jeopardized the realm because it left Prince Rhaegel as the heir to the throne. Rhaegel was repeatedly described as a sweet man but also as “mad, meek and sickly” and was known for dancing naked in the Red Keep. In refusing to have a child, Aerys showed that he was willing to let a woefully unfit prince succeed to the throne at a time when the Seven Kingdoms were facing threats from within and without, not that Aerys cared much about that as his abandonment of the Starks and Lannisters to face Dagon Greyjoy on their own showed. Still, an abdication would have put Rhaegel on the throne which would have come with its own set of problems.